How Might Benedict's Visit Influence the Election?

The Star-Ledger is one of the first secular publications to publish an article that I'm sure we're likely to see more of - highlighting how the pope's trip might influence the election, coming as it does on the eve of the Pennsylvania primaries.

They're not alone.

Catholic News Agency ran this article 16 days ago. The article says: "Catholics could compose up to one third of voters in the important April 22 election.

Exit polls from past presidential primary elections indicate that Catholics have preferred New York Senator Hillary Clinton to Illinois Senator Barack Obama by a margin of up to 65 percent.  Even the majority of Catholic Democrats in Senator Obama’s home state of Illinois voted for Senator Clinton."

The mistake that both articles make is that neither separate out for practicing versus non-practicing Catholics - a distinction that means a great deal when dealing with polls and surveys.

The Star-Ledger article attempts to be balanced in its approach, but gives Fr. Thomas Reese more print (five paragraphs) than Fr. Richard Neuhaus (one paragraph). I'd be interested in readers' take on the article. Does it provide clarity or confusion?

Says the Star-Ledger,  "And while no one believes the pope will speak directly about the presidential election during his visit, the tone and focus of his speeches could help influence millions of Catholic voters, many of whom live in key swing states such as Ohio, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which holds its primary next month."

Tim Graham of the Media Research Center predicted this when he told me a couple of weeks back, “The media sitting in their newsrooms are worried about, in this election year, what effect the Pope’s visit can have on Obama’s or McCain’s campaign,” said Graham. “They don’t understand the Sacraments, theological principles, or Scripture. They see the Catholic Church coming to ruin stem cell research, or end abortion. But the people in the pews aren’t coming to see Pope Benedict for the politics; they’re coming for the Eucharist and to honor this great theologian.”

Thomas Peters, over at AmericanPapist offers his commentary on the need people feel to link the Pope with politics. He rightly calls such coverage a "fool's quest."

Peters links to articles by various pundits, offering their take on what candidates might do while Pope Benedict is in town. His links include:

- An article at InsideCatholic by Robert Reilly commenting on what Senator McCain might do.
- An article from America by Michael Sean Winters commenting on what Senator Clinton might do.
- An endorsement from former Catholic University of America Law School dean Douglas Kmiec for Barrack Obama.
- A refutation of Kmiec's argument by Deacon Keith Fournier at Catholic Online.